Policy Topic · Semiconductors & Technology

Stocks Affected by
Export Controls

U.S. export restrictions on advanced semiconductors are one of the most active policy levers in the current geopolitical environment. When the Commerce Department updates the entity list or tightens chip licensing requirements, specific stocks move immediately. This page tracks the exposure — fed from AISB's live executive order pipeline.

View Live Policy Signals →

Latest Policy Signals

Updated: {{ last_updated | default("Mar 4, 2026") }}

Advanced GPU Export Licensing Expanded

Tickers mentioned: NVDA, AMD, AVGO

Revenue Risk

Chip Equipment Restrictions — ASML & Applied Materials

Tickers mentioned: ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC

Export Block

CHIPS Act Domestic Manufacturing Incentives

Tickers mentioned: INTC, TSM, SAMSUNG

Subsidy Benefit

Full EO tracker →

Companies Most Exposed

Semiconductor & Tech Stocks in the Crosshairs

Export control exposure varies significantly depending on a company's role in the chip supply chain — designer, manufacturer, or equipment supplier — and how much of their revenue comes from restricted markets.

NVDA Nvidia H100/H20 GPU licensing requirements for China cut directly into data center revenue. Largest revenue exposure of any chip company. High Risk

AMD AMD MI300 AI accelerators face similar licensing requirements as NVDA H-series. China data center exposure is growing and increasingly restricted. High Risk

ASML ASML Sole manufacturer of EUV lithography machines. U.S. pressure on Netherlands has blocked EUV and some DUV shipments to China. High Risk

AMAT Applied Materials Chip deposition equipment restricted from advanced Chinese fabs. Domestic U.S. fab buildout (CHIPS Act) partially offsets China revenue loss. Mixed

AVGO Broadcom Custom AI chip work for hyperscalers has significant China data center adjacency. Entity list additions create customer exposure risk. Risk

INTC Intel CHIPS Act subsidies support domestic fab investment. China revenue at risk from restrictions, but domestic manufacturing position partially insulates. Mixed

LRCX Lam Research Etch equipment restricted from leading-edge Chinese fabs. China represented ~30% of revenue before restrictions tightened. Risk

KLAC KLA Corp Process control equipment for semiconductor manufacturing. Restrictions affect leading-edge sales to China; trailing-edge sales remain partially permitted. Watch

Policy Mechanics

How Export Controls Actually Hit Stocks

Export controls aren't a single policy — they're a layered system of licensing requirements, entity lists, and allied-nation coordination. Understanding the mechanism clarifies which companies are most exposed.

Entity List Additions

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) can add Chinese companies to the "entity list," requiring U.S. suppliers to obtain licenses before selling to them. License approval rates are low. This cuts off revenue from specific customers overnight.

NVDA AMAT LRCX

Licensing Thresholds

The U.S. sets performance thresholds (measured in TOPS — tera operations per second) above which chips require export licenses. When the threshold drops, previously permitted chips suddenly require licenses, directly impacting product revenue in restricted markets.

NVDA AMD QCOM

Allied-Nation Coordination

The U.S. coordinates with allies — particularly the Netherlands (ASML), Japan (Tokyo Electron), and South Korea (Samsung) — to extend restrictions beyond U.S.-origin equipment. This closes loopholes where Chinese fabs sourced from non-U.S. suppliers.

ASML TSM INTC

CHIPS Act — The Offsetting Force

The CHIPS and Science Act provides subsidies for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Companies that can redirect investment toward U.S. fabs may offset China revenue loss with government-backed domestic contracts and tax credits.

INTC TSM AMAT

Signal Split

Winners & Losers in the Export Control Regime

▼ Restriction Risk

NVDA

H100/H20 licensing requirements cut China data center revenue. Largest absolute dollar exposure of any single company.

AMD

MI300 AI accelerators under increasing restriction. China AI chip market was a key growth vector.

ASML

EUV machines fully blocked from China. DUV restrictions expanding under U.S.-Netherlands coordination.

LRCX / KLAC

Etch and process control equipment blocked from leading-edge Chinese fabs. China was ~25-30% of revenue.

▲ Relative Benefit

INTC

CHIPS Act subsidies support domestic fab buildout. Less China data center AI exposure than NVDA/AMD.

TSM (US operations)

Arizona fab expansion supported by CHIPS subsidies. U.S. government wants TSM capacity onshore.

AMAT (domestic)

U.S. fab buildout creates domestic equipment demand that partially offsets China revenue loss.

PLTR / MSFT

U.S. AI procurement push benefits domestic AI software and cloud companies not subject to export rules.

Policy Events

Key Export Control Actions

These are the major export control actions tracked in AISB's executive order and policy pipeline, with affected tickers and market impact analysis.

Advanced Semiconductor Export Controls — BIS Rule Update

Commerce Department lowered the performance threshold for GPU licensing to China. Previously permitted H20 variants now require export licenses. Near-term revenue guidance revision expected.

NVDA AMD INTC

Full analysis →

Chip Equipment Allied-Nation Coordination — Netherlands & Japan

U.S. secured commitments from Netherlands and Japan to extend semiconductor equipment export restrictions, closing routes around U.S.-origin controls. ASML DUV partially included.

ASML AMAT LRCX

Full analysis →

CHIPS and Science Act — Domestic Manufacturing Subsidies

$52B in subsidies for U.S. semiconductor manufacturing. Companies receiving CHIPS funds face guardrails on China fab investment. Creates domestic supply chain incentive structure.

INTC TSM AMAT KLAC

Full analysis →

Browse all export control executive orders →

Stocks Affected by
Export Controls

Semiconductor & Tech Stocks in the Crosshairs

How Export Controls Actually Hit Stocks

Winners & Losers in the Export Control Regime

Key Export Control Actions

Connected Signal Areas

Get Export Control Signals Before the Open

Stocks Affected byExport Controls

Semiconductor & Tech Stocks in the Crosshairs

How Export Controls Actually Hit Stocks

Winners & Losers in the Export Control Regime

Key Export Control Actions

Connected Signal Areas

Get Export Control Signals Before the Open

Stocks Affected by
Export Controls